Marine Le Pen’s 2027 Presidential Hopes Dashed

In a politically seismic ruling, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from running for political office for five years after being convicted of embezzling European Union funds.

Announced on Monday, the Paris court’s decision shatters Le Pen’s prospects of contesting the 2027 Presidential election, where she was widely considered the frontrunner to replace Emmanuel Macron.

The court found Le Pen guilty of misappropriating public funds by using European Parliament money to pay staff who were, in reality, working for her National Rally (RN) party in France.

The case, involving eight Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from her party and 12 assistants, dates back to the period between 2004 and 2016. The court president, Bénédicte de Perthuis, described Le Pen’s actions as a “serious and lasting attack on the rules of democratic life in Europe, but especially in France.”

The Consequences

The prosecution had sought a five-year suspended prison sentence, a €300,000 ($325,000) fine, and an immediate five-year ineligibility to run for office, even if she chooses to appeal.

The prison sentence or the fine would not be applied until all appeals and legal recourse are exhausted. Le Pen left the courtroom before the full sentence was read out.

Le Pen’s ban on running for office kicks in immediately via a measure called ‘provisional execution’ requested by the prosecutors. That will only be lifted if any appeal is upheld before the 2027 Presidential election.

However, in sharp contrast, Le Pen will hold onto her parliamentary seat until her term ends.

Political Outcry

Le Pen’s conviction has sparked an outcry among right-wing allies. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán posted a message of solidarity, writing, “Je suis Marine!” on social media.

RN President and Le Pen’s close associate, Jordan Bardella, denounced the ruling, stating: “Today, it is not only Marine Le Pen who was unjustly condemned: it is French democracy that has been executed.”

Impact on 2027 Presidential Election

Le Pen’s exclusion from the presidential race drastically reshapes the political landscape. Having finished as the runner-up to Macron in both 2017 and 2022, Le Pen had seen her party’s popularity steadily rise, with polls previously placing her as the favourite to win in 2027.

Her protege, 29-year-old Bardella, now appears poised to step in as the party’s de facto candidate. Meanwhile, Le Pen dismissed the case as politically motivated, calling it an attempt to sabotage her electoral prospects. “There are 11 million people who voted for the movement I represent. This ruling deprives them of their candidate in the election,” she said before the verdict.

Despite the conviction, Le Pen remains defiant. Shortly after the ruling, she announced on social media that she would appear on TF1’s 8 pm news broadcast to address the nation.

The Case

The case revolves around accusations that more than €4 million ($4.33 million) in EU funds were improperly allocated to France-based National Rally (RN) party staff instead of legitimate parliamentary assistants. Le Pen and her party have argued that the funds were used legally, contesting the narrow definition of a MEP’s assistant work.

Le Pen has consistently denied intentional misconduct, arguing that the funds were used for legitimate party activities, She also accused prosecutors of attempting to end her political career. 

Future in Limbo

While her appeal could delay the implementation of her sentence, the ruling marks a defining moment in French politics, raising questions about the future of the far-right movement in the country.

With Le Pen sidelined, all eyes are now on Bardella and how the National Rally reshapes its strategy ahead of the 2027 elections.