Liberals Edge Ahead Early as Canada Votes 2025 Unfold

Canada Election 2025: Early Trends Show Tight Race Between Liberals and Conservatives Amid Tensions Over U.S. Interference

 

By early Tuesday morning IST (late Monday evening in Canada), the first results from the 2025 Canadian federal elections have begun to trickle in, offering a glimpse into what promises to be a fiercely contested political battle.

Voting took place for all 343 seats in the House of Commons, with 172 needed for a majority government. As of 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time (8:00 a.m. IST, Tuesday), the Liberals, under the fresh leadership of Mark Carney, have taken an early lead, having secured eight seats, while the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, have clinched five. The Liberal Party is currently leading on 12 seats, having secured 109,540 votes, while the Conservatives are marginally behind, leading on 5 constituencies with a tally of 94,371 votes.

These figures remain highly fluid as counting continues across Canada's vast time zones, and margins are expected to shift throughout the night. It remains a reminder of the geographical and political complexity that characterises Canadian federal elections.

Initial trends from Newfoundland and Labrador — typically Liberal strongholds — show Paul Connors holding a narrow lead over Conservative challenger Steve Kent in Avalon, with only a fraction of polls reporting. Connors presently commands 52.3% of the vote, while Kent trails at 41.7%. Across Atlantic Canada, where polls closed earliest, Liberals are making a respectable showing, although Conservatives are performing stronger than anticipated in suburban and rural ridings.

This election marks a historic and tumultuous chapter for Canada, occurring against a backdrop of economic anxiety, healthcare strain, and growing diplomatic unease with Washington. Notably, on the day Canadians headed to the polls, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stunning appeal, urging Canadians to support a party that would advocate for Canada becoming the 51st state of the United States. The unprecedented statement was met with swift and bipartisan condemnation across the Canadian political spectrum, denounced as a gross interference in the country's sovereign democratic process.

The major parties have campaigned vigorously over the past five weeks. Carney, banking on his reputation as a former central banker, promised economic stability and strong leadership. Poilievre has mounted a populist campaign, focused on economic grievances, cost-of-living pressures, and promises to restore what he frames as "true Canadian values." Meanwhile, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has fought hard to retain the progressive vote, especially in British Columbia and urban Ontario.

Voting closed progressively through the evening, beginning in Newfoundland and Labrador at 7:00 p.m. EDT, followed by Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick at 7:30 p.m. Results from the central and western provinces will begin to flow in over the next few hours, with British Columbia's polls closing at 7:00 p.m. PDT (7:30 a.m. IST).

While early returns suggest a slight Liberal edge, the evening is still young, and the overall balance of power remains very much in play. Much will hinge on key battlegrounds in Ontario and Quebec, as well as swing ridings in British Columbia and Alberta, where both Carney and Poilievre invested significant time and political capital.

With millions of votes still to be counted, Canada now stands at a crossroads, facing a decision that will shape its domestic landscape and global posture for years to come.

We will continue to provide updates as results solidify through the night and into Tuesday morning IST.